Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
