The Astonishing Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

Just eight weeks prior when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

A Touchline Reaction of Elation

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
  • The winger may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.

Jacob Sloan
Jacob Sloan

Elara Vance is a seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in sports wagering and probability analysis.