A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
